Contention over the Arctic

Introduction

Ice melt has enabled navigable transportation of the Arctic, introducing a new route for global commercial shipping. This has unprecedented impacts on the global climate, economy, and international relationships. Through extensive literature review we seek to explore the economical and environmental impacts a new trade route would have and the social tensions surrounding this. The research project will be broken down to focus on specific aspects of the Arctic situation, analyze the complex relationship between history, economics and geopolitics in the region; determine if the development can be considered a crisis, and examine academic as well as political discourse on the matter. Due to the subject’s global significance, the contention over the Arctic region should be examined in an unbiased manner. This means research will be conducted using sources from many different countries and institutions, rather than employing solely American sources, as they are the most abundant.

Chapter 1 — Who Owns the Arctic?

Who Owns the Arctic? ~ Sean Emmanuel (21337713) Nations may react differently based on their geopolitical interests, economic priorities, and environmental concerns. The distribution of benefits and burdens from Arctic trade routes will vary among countries and stakeholders and competitors. The 5 Arctic nations have coastlines or strategic positions along trade routes, and may benefit more economically. Meanwhile indigenous communities and fragile ecosystems in the Arctic may suffer negative impacts from the increased shipping and resource extraction; as well as the disenfranchisement of nations with alternative routes (such as Egypt or Panama). Indigenous communities such as the Inuit in Canada have struggled maintaining certain traditions, such as predicting the weather, particularly because of the changing climate in the region. Responsibility for managing ecological impacts will likely involve a combination of international agreements and cooperation among Arctic states and stakeholders. Like all of the oceans, the Arctic is governed by the principles of international law, including UNCLOS, which recognizes the sovereignty of coastal states and their territorial waters. Some nations may seek to influence regulations and policies to maximize their economic interests while minimizing environmental risks, potentially leading to unequal outcomes for different communities and ecosystems. During the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, it was agreed that the extended continental shelf limits are determined using the rules found in Article 76. Applying these rules requires geophysical mapping and knowledge of the seabed geology 1 . The United States recently announced that their economic exclusivity zone would be extended, meaning that their maritime boundaries in the Arctic and surrounding areas have been extended 2 . Many countries throughout the world are actively awaiting approval for extensions, including France and China 3 ; however, the ability for the United States to employ scientific diplomacy to expand their territorial waters off Alaska is worth mentioning. Using the Arctic as an alternative to traditional trade routes involves weighing economic benefits, environmental risks, and geopolitical implications. Some argue that Arctic routes offer shorter transit times, reduced fuel consumption, and potentially lower costs for shipping. The Northwestern Passage off the coast of Siberia has deeper waters than the Panama Canal, 40% shorter, 3 Jonassen, T. (2023). The U.S. Initiates Extended Continental Shelf Claims. [online] www.highnorthnews.com. Available at: https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/us-initiates-extended-continental-shelf-claims. 2 US Department of State (2023). Announcement of U.S. Extended Continental Shelf Outer Limits. [online] United States Department of State. Available at: https://www.state.gov/announcement-of-u-s-extended-continental-shelf-outer-limits-2/. 1Baumert, K.A. (2022). Article 76 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea: Parties and Non-Parties. International Law Studies, 99(963). 2

and cuts commercial shipping costs by thousands of metric tons 4 . There are many reasons why the Northern Passage is a good shipping option economically and environmentally, yet the maintenance for vessels taking these routes is ultimately expensive. Many navies throughout the world have invested in their Arctic capabilities, military operations have been conducted within the Arctic circle as well by various countries. This is a sign that if regulatory agreements are not abided by regarding the Arctic, conflict is certainly possible; as seen with the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, countries such as Russia show no fear in flexing their military capabilities. It is estimated that Russia has spent $211 billion on its efforts in Ukraine 5 , and as of 2024 there seems to be no de-escalation; this could potentially be detrimental to the Kremlin’s expected outcomes in the Arctic, as it is already suffering from economic sanctions and international condemnation. Nonetheless Russia has refused a sovereign nation's basic liberties, which are guaranteed by the courtesy of international law; if Russia is willing to violate UN agreements, it would not be surprising to see the Kremlin willing to risk conflict in the Arctic. For that reason an analysis of naval and arctic sailing capabilities must be established to see what a conflict in the Arctic would materialize into. NATO believes the increased competition and militarisation in the Arctic region by regional and external stakeholders is concerning, issuing a statement regarding the Arctic as an integral part of their deterrence strategy against Russia 6 . [Figure 2] The U.S. Department of released the geographic coordinates defining the outer limits of the U.S. (Map: US Department of State) 6 NATO (2023). ”ËœArctic remains essential to NATO’s Deterrence and Defence Posture’, says Chair of the NATO Military Committee. [online] NATO. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_219529.htm. 5 Ali, I. (2024). Russia operations in Ukraine have probably cost up to $211 billion-US official. Reuters. 4 Marshall, T. (2016). Prisoners of geography : ten maps that tell you everything you need to know about global politics. London: Elliott And Thompson Limited. 3

[Figure 3] Table outlining the estimated strength and capabilities of various nations, by Sean Emmanuel

Chapter 2 — Geopolitical Relationships

Geopolitical Relationships ~ Anton Holmstrom (23377861) The paper Economy, society and governance in the Arctic: Overview of ArCS research project in the field of humanities and social sciences (2015”“2020) written by Tabata et al. (2021) focuses on many aspects in the Arctic region. These are: the northern sea passage, the environment and sustainability with natural resources, interaction between humans and the environment, and arctic governance. Tabata et al. (2021) discuss the Northern Sea Route, and the economic impacts it will have on global trade as well as the possibility of resource extraction of oil and gas. Looking at Figure 4, it can be observed that the Northern Sea Route is a shorter shipping route in comparison with the Suez canal. [Figure 4] Northern Sea Route passage length in comparison to the Suez canal; from Tabata et al. (2021). 4

Because of the Arctic sea ice retreat, caused by global warming, the Northern Sea Route is opening up, leading to new opportunities for trade and resource extraction in the Arctic region that was previously not possible 7 . The Northern Sea Route would be the only way to transport natural resources from the Russian Arctic coast to non-Arctic markets. Furthermore if this new shipping route becomes a reality for use between Europe and East Asia, it could have an effect on the international logistics network, as well as economic relations between Europe and East Asia 8 . The Arctic Council which was founded in 1990 consisting of the nations of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Russia is an important actor in the Arctic region. There are however other nations who have an interest in the Arctic ocean such as China 9 . And in recent years because of the economic possibilities in the Arctic ocean there have been geopolitical changes 10 . There is now competition between the US, Russia, and China in a number of fields in global politics that has led to concerns being raised on the stability of the international relationship in the Arctic 11 . Each one of these nations views the Arctic and Northern Sea Route as significantly important for future development and trade and are actively making efforts to undermine each other 12 . The paper “Benefit sharing in the Arctic energy sector: Perspectives on corporate policies and practices in Northern Russia and Alaska” written by Tysiachniouk and Petrov (2018) discusses how there are many transnational energy companies in the Arctic region that are extracting natural resources such as oil and natural gas. They share these regions with the local communities, indigenous populations and state actors and these companies are facing serious policy challenges in respect to benefit sharing 13 . The four modes of benefit sharing taken up by Tysiachniouk and Petrov (2018) are paternalistic, company centered social responsibility, partnership, and shareholder modes. Tysiachniouk and Petrov (2018) research these modes of benefit sharing in Russia and Alaska and discover that although the four stylized modes of benefit sharing are a convenient classification framework for systematizing various arrangements, in most regions there were two to four co-existing modes. Tysiachniouk and Petrov (2018) also bring up that benefits shared by the extractive energy sector operating in the Arctic are highly variable and depend on institutional, financial, political, and geographical settings. Tysiachniouk and Petrov (2018) come to the conclusion that companies and the state must work together with indigenous and the local communities to build local institutional capacities and human capital in order to ensure that benefit sharing policies contribute to sustainable development in Arctic communities.

Chapter 3 — Environmental Advantages and Disadvantages

Environmental Advantages & Disadvantages ~ Finn Masterson (19334046) The use of new major shipping routes in the Arctic presents many conflicting issues surrounding environmental justice and conscious development as well as the concerning idea of it having only been a result of the past/current global climate crisis. The three major routes; the Northwest Passage, the Northern Sea Route, and the Trans-polar Sea Route have become viable options for diverting some shipping from traditional southern shipping routes to this area due to sea 13Tysiachniouk M. and Petrov A.N. (2018), 'Benefit sharing in the Arctic energy sector: Perspectives on corporate policies and practices in Northern Russia and Alaska,' Energy Research & Social Science, 39, p. 29”“34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.014 12 Ibid. 11 Ibid. 10Ibid. 9 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 7 Tabata S., Otsuka N., Goto M. and Takahashi M. (2021), 'Economy, society and governance in the Arctic: Overview of ArCS research project in the field of humanities and social sciences (2015”“2020),' Polar Science, 27, p. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2020.100600 5

ice melt and climate change 14 . Though a shorter shipping route between Europe/America and Asia may significantly save energy and reduce pollution compared to the Suez canal route and other traditional southern trade routes, there are some other important factors to consider such as resource extraction along the Eurasian Arctic, sea ice collapse and melt due to climate change and ice breaking abilities of new shipping vessels and development of towns that sit adjacent to this route for example Russian coastal towns and what this development might mean for the climate 15 . Through a review of literature on the subject it is clear that the issue of development in the Arctic is highly complex and requires a colossal amount of careful and considerate governance to succeed in a climate efficient manner as well as in an economically beneficial manner. Although shorter routes mean less travel time for large fossil fuel consuming vessels thus consuming far less fuel, this project may entail risks for fragile Arctic environments and ecosystems which are traditionally managed by indigenous people in the areas. Taking coastal Russian towns for example, these areas are rich in wildlife supporting thriving ecosystems with nearly every species of Arctic mammal, including polar bears, Arctic foxes, Greenland whales, narwhals, beluga whales, Atlantic walruses, ringed seals, many wild reindeers and about 1000 varieties of plants 16 . These species have been impacted already by global climate change and polar sea ice melt, however, many ecosystems will be put under much more strain with specific threats caused by industrialization along the routes. This is why powers currently taking part in the race to claim and develop this part of the world have put forward different policies to ensure the security of the Arctic environment in their development plans. With development of the Northern passage comes environmental risks and the question of ”Ëœwho owns the Arctic?’ remains relevant and concerning as the stakeholders in the Arctic decide its environmental fate 17 . When analyzing the current environmental policies being theorized and implemented by contributing powers looking to claim the Arctic as their own, environmental governance of the area, it seems, has become somewhat of a soft but aggressive ploy to position said nations in the lead in the struggle to claim these shipping routes 18 . Studies have shown that Canada has been using its Arctic environmental security policies to prop itself up in the Arctic. Ultimately, it is through the analysis of these different factors that produce these trade routes such as greenhouse gas emissions due to global trade itself and a consideration for the climate and climate protection based at source in different development plans for areas like the Arctic that the need for multi disciplinary action on this topic is highlighted. Without the responsible development of these routes and their adjacent human settlements the fragile natural ecosystems will suffer drastic disruption and most likely failure leading to negative side effects not only for climate and nature but indigenous communities as well. 18 St-Jacques, C., 2019. On Thin Ice: Canada's Arctic Policy and Environmental Security. 17 Dushkova, D., Krasovskaya, T. and Evseev, A., 2017. Environmental & human impact of the Northern Sea Route & industrial development in Russia’s Arctic zone. Arctic yearbook, 1. 16 Morgunov, B., Danilov, A.A., Evseev, A.V., Gordeev, V.V., Kochemasov, Y.V., Lukyanov, Y.S., Lystsov, V.N., Moiseenko, T.I., Murashko, O.A., Nemirovskaya, I. and Patin, S.A., 2011. DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC. 15 Makarova, I., Gubacheva, L., Makarov, D. and Buyvol, P., 2021. Economic and environmental aspects of the development possibilities for the northern sea route. Transportation Research Procedia, 57, pp.347-355. 14Ng, A.K., Andrews, J., Babb, D., Lin, Y. and Becker, A., 2018. Implications of climate change for shipping: Opening the Arctic seas. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 9(2), p.e507. 6

A Critical Literature Review exploring Canada’s economic interests in the Northern Passage ~

Chapter 4 — Canada, & the Economy of the Arctic

Natascha O’Donnell-Downey (20333554) Evolving ice conditions in the Northern Passage due to global warming are a hugely consequential factor when considering new shipping routes through the Arctic, explored in countless academic papers. Previously, this route was impassable because of dangerous ice conditions. “Feasibility of a Sea Route through the Canadian Arctic” explores both the economic advantages and challenges associated with using the Canadian Arctic for transportation purposes versus the traditional route along the Panama Canal. However, establishing which shipping route is more economically viable is not straightforward, as the cost of “ice capable ships” must be considered 19 . A huge benefit of the Panama Canal is that standard Panamax ships can travel through it. Results are incorporated from a transit model with a detailed stochastic model of shipping cost to evaluate key factors affecting the economic viability of a year-round Arctic route 20 . The report found more uncertainty for the Northwest Passage in terms of transit time and cost, so another simulation was generated for both routes with limited ship size. This creates inaccuracy, as there is no limit on ship size in the Northern Passage. Canada’s ice service system for merchant ships, Canadian Arctic Class (CAC), which rates ships for ice service determined a CAC 3 Class ship was necessary. This simulation found little difference between the two routes. While this paper compiled a comprehensive examination of both routes, it lacks some key considerations of aspects that the Canadian Northern Passage is better equipped to deal with. Lu et al.’s article, “An Economic Analysis of Container Shipping through Canadian Northwest Passage'' is more challenging to decipher due to its substantial mathematical component. Nonetheless, these mathematical models offer a more in-depth examination of Canadian economic interests in the Northern Passage. A detailed investigation of transportation costs along the Northwest Passage, both with and without toll fees, and compared with other routes, favour the Northwest Passage. The Passage could reduce transportation costs and transit times compared to traditional routes like the Panama Canal. As global maritime transport continues to grow, this passage could handle expanding ship size ”“ unlike the Panama Canal, where the largest ship that can go through is 195.1m l2 long, 32.6m wide, and 12m craft depth 21 . This article, as it is more recent than Somanathan, Flynn, and Szymanski's paper and a more reliable model, offers greater clarity into the preferable shipping route. Canada and Quebec have numerous collective interests in the Northern Passage, and the Arctic in general. “Canada’s Arctic Agenda: Into the Vortex; Chapter 5, Common Ground for Canada and Quebec in the Arctic” outlines the importance of Quebec in the Canadian Arctic Agenda and its collaborative opportunities with Canada. Although the province of Quebec is geographically on the outskirts of the Canadian Arctic, it has significant political influence and plays an important role in shaping federal policies, including those related to the Arctic. Quebec's struggles with indigenous issues and environmental problems can positively inform Canada's Arctic Agenda. As such, Quebec has an interest in collaborating with the federal government to shape policies and initiatives related to Arctic shipping and maritime activities. Quebec displayed its vested interest in the Arctic by producing a policy focusing solely on the Arctic, in 2015. ”ËœPlan Nord’ focuses on the dual objectives 21 3Lu et al., “An Economic Analysis of Container Shipping through Canadian Northwest Passage”, pp. 61, International Journal of e-Navigation and Maritime Economy, 1, pp.60”“ 72, 2014, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enavi.2014.12.001. 20 Ibid. 19 Somanathan et al., ”ËœFeasibility of a Sea Route through the Canadian Arctic’, pp.324, Maritime Economics & Logistics 9(4), pp.324”“334., 2007, doi:https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100185. 7

of pursuing economic development while ensuring environmental protection 22 . Landriault provides a detailed analysis of Quebec's importance in the Arctic region. However, continued exploration of the potential implications for Quebec if the Northern Passage were to become a shipping route would offer a more comprehensive understanding of the issue. These articles highlight the complexities involved in assessing different Arctic routes. There remains some uncertainty in determining the most cost-effective option. Certain regions must also be considered when considering Arctic policies. Quebec’s introduction of ”ËœPlan Nord’ stresses the broader implications of Arctic development for Canada’s diverse provinces. Further study of the economic dynamics and implications of Canada's involvement in Arctic shipping is paramount to handle changing challenges and possibilities in the Arctic.

Conclusion

Conclusion The conclusions drawn from this case study and the sources related to it show that the Arctic region is becoming more volatile. Climate change and new technology in the Arctic has led to the Northern sea passage becoming more accessible to use as a trade route and also brought up new environmental concerns and policies to ensure the Arctic regions safety. However it is hard to decide exactly who owns this new territory and has responsibility for it. Climate change and new technology has also made the possibility for resource extraction in the Arctic region to be more accessible. Companies and nations both in the Arctic region and other parts of the world are now competing against each other for the Arctic regions and the possibilities it offers. With so many nations having a strong interest in the Arctic the region is becoming increasingly volatile. With all of these factors laid together the future of the Arctic region is uncertain. 22 Mathieu Landriault (2019), ”ËœCommon Ground for Canada and Quebec in the Arctic’ in John Higginbotham and Jennifer Spence Canada’s Arctic Agenda: Into the Vortex, p.43, the Centre for International Governance Innovation, p.43-51 8

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